pablo wrote:
> Mark N wrote:
> > ... Pedrosa ...
>
> his race was strange. falling behind. coming back. slowing down.
>
> > ... Spies shows how bad the situation was ...
>
> arguably they should have shortened the race.
>
> > ... Pedrosa totally dodged
> > a bullet on his way to better shoulder/arm health
>
> i somehow doubt Pedrosa will do any better after the surgery. it's
> always some other reason. it's clear Stoner is faster on the Honda,
> period.
>
> > could be a very critical moment in the championship
>
> i hope not. the only big loser points wise was Stoner. he was riding
> like he deserved a load of them and missed them through no fault of
> his own (unlike everybody else that went down). on the other hand he's
> been riding like he is the top championship favorite, so perhaps this
> will help not make the season too one-sided after the first 4 or 5
> races...
This race reminded me so much of Donington '09, then guys on slicks on
a too-wet track, this time on rains on a too-dry track, both because
of relatively recent rules construction regarding tires. Over the
course of both races the pace fell off by about 10 seconds, as the
tire and track conditions from the mismatch worsened. There were lots
of crashers in both races, Stoner's races were disasters, and Rossi
crashed in both only to pick it up and finish in 5th both times. For
Lorenzo and Pedrosa this was a different deal, though, as Jorge
crashed out last time while leading, and this time he let the race
come to him and won. Pedrosa started out much like '09, falling down
through the field as if his bike was stuck in reverse, but this time
somehow that channged, and, unlike Lorenzo, I'm not so certain it's
because he's gotten better in the wet or selected a better strategy.
The winning strategy was Lorenzo's, which was to go into the lead at
the start and then quickly back off, the track not being wet enough
for the soft tires. So he posted his fastest lap and all his fastest
section times on lap 2 and then slowed immediately. The one other
rider to do that was Stoner, which suggests his thinking was the same
and perhaps the outcome would have been similar had he not been taken
out by Rossi. The other fast guys who ended up in the dirt or with
shot tires all posted fast laps and sections later, although that kind
of speed was over quickly in this race, with no one posting a race
fast lap after lap 5 (Pedrosa and Hayden) or a fast section time after
lap 7 (Aoyama; Nick had two on lap 6). And I suspect that cost all
these guys on tire and grip. From then on it was about how quickly
guys slowed, and Lorenzo managed that the best. After his bad opening
laps Pedrosa continued to close on Lorenzo until lap 15, when the
margin was down to 1.2 second, but Jorge pretty quickly pulled away
after that, maintaining his pace much better than Dani, who had to
give up a spot to Spies before having that gifted back. Dani's tire
was clearly in better shape than the others in parc ferme, with
visible tread remaining. So I don't see much more than giood fortune
getting him to 2nd, with his machine or his style or perhaps-tentative
rain riding or lighter weight wearing his tire less, his backing off
to save rubber later into the race (if at all), and his inability to
stay with JL in the 2nd half of the race on what looked like a better
tire.
In any case, I'm also not sure that I like rules which end up with
these guys doing a whole race in a situation like that, or the one at
Donington in '09.
> and if Rossi does that again, he deserves a heavy penalty.
Yes, but we won't see ever see that, will we? We haven't seen it yet,
and Rossi has done MUCH worse...
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