sturd wrote:
> Mark N believes:
>
> > It may not be. But at this level, in roughly the front half of the
> > MotoGP grid, I just don't believe any rider is a second faster than
> > another purely on their own,
>
> To paraphrase, "Beliefs are like assholes, everybody's got one."
>
> In this case, a second difference between two riders on identical
> MotoGP bikes is not unusual at all. *Besides rider ability, which
> can be a second or more easily, bike setup can be another big
> hunk of time.

I agree setup can make that sort of difference, that is evidenced in
the time progress riders make over a weekend, at least back when they
actually had tire choices to consider. But I don't agree that there is
evidence that two top riders on identical bikes have talent-based one-
second gaps at this level, especially when you consider factors like
what Champ mentions, a bike being better-suited for one rider than
another. There really is no "proof" either way, of course, but what I
look at is the lap differences between guys who have the best machines
their factory builds and has been impacted most by their input/desires
and guys who assumedly aren't as good, who aren't in that position and
have to use older versions of the same stuff with no real input. The
gap there can be something like a second or so or even less at the
average track, and there's just too much else going on to attribute
much of that to pure riding talent and intellegence.

Anyway, it's just what people believe, and I happen not to believe
those gaps exist at the cutting edge that is GP's premier class, these
guys are (mostly) all too good and so the machines running too close
to their theoretical limits. You believe otherwise. Of course, I also
think anyone who subscribes to the Burgess "80% rider, 20% bike"
notion is also likely to believe that the differences can be that
great, they almost have to.

Mark N <(E-Mail Removed)> Mon, 8 Feb 2010 21:11:22
>Julian Bond wrote:
>> sturd
>>> In this case, a second difference between two riders on identical
>>> MotoGP bikes is not unusual at all.
>> Especially at Sepang with a > 120 secs lap time.
>
>Exactly right.

Suggest you go back and look at the practice sessions for Sepang 2009
FP1 5 riders covered by 1s
FP2 8 riders covered by 1s
QP 4 riders covered by 1s

Typical splits between the top rider on each machine and the second on
the same machine are in the 0.4s to 1.5s range.

If the equivalent splits in this test session are less, it would be easy
to explain it because; Everyone is a bit rusty after the break; they're
spending most of the time *testing* not chasing a time; Several of the
bikes are significantly different from last year; Bridgestone are also
testing in exceptional heat; the sessions were upset by rain; Nobody
wants to get hurt right now. And most everyone was quite a way off QP
perhaps partly because there's not the same motivation to surf the edge.

And in general team mates finish in the same order as they always do.

So clearly it's completely obvious that:-
- Ducati are building a bike for Stoner only and hurting all their other
riders
- Honda are building a bike for Pedrosa only and hurting all their other
riders
- Honda are giving the satellite teams an uncompetitive bike
- Yamaha are giving Tech3 a detuned engine
- Suzuki don't know how to do it, but Capirossi flatters what they bring
- If you're not an ex-250 midget you haven't got a hope
- Spies is the great white hope.

It's not hard to find stuff to justify all of that. But after a while
some of it just looks like fruitcake paranoid conspiracies.

Or perhaps
- Stoner really is an alien. He does actually have an alien ability to
hit the edge on every single lap he does without falling off
- Hayden isn't an alien. He's just plain slower than Stoner. Still
faster than a lot of others but just not in the same league as the top 4
- Pedrosa has worked out how to use his light weight and is just plain
faster then Dovi
- Rossi and Lorenzo are very close in ability but they're both
significantly faster than Edwards and always have been
- The jury's still out on Spies. Maybe he's another Lorenzo. Maybe he's
a bit better than Edwards. Maybe he'll have a year like Toseland's
first. We'll see.

--
Julian Bond E&MSN: julian_bond at voidstar.com M: +44 (0)77 5907 2173
Webmaster: http://www.ecademy.com/ T: +44 (0)192 0412 433
Personal WebLog: http://www.voidstar.com/ skype:julian.bond?chat
Preserve Nature

Mark N <(E-Mail Removed)> Tue, 9 Feb 2010 07:42:38
>Or maybe he's as good as anyone out there and possibly even better, but
>will never quite show it in MotoGP, because he's too big, his
>background is too production, his nationality is too American.

Getting the excuses prepared already? Seems a little premature.

--
Julian Bond E&MSN: julian_bond at voidstar.com M: +44 (0)77 5907 2173
Webmaster: http://www.ecademy.com/ T: +44 (0)192 0412 433
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Multigrain For A Unique Taste

Julian Bond wrote:
> Mark N
>
> >Or maybe he's as good as anyone out there and possibly even better, but
> >will never quite show it in MotoGP, because he's too big, his
> >background is too production, his nationality is too American.
>
> Getting the excuses prepared already? Seems a little premature.

Perhaps so. Even you and Pablo won't be calling for his head until he
goes three or four races without a win...

On Feb 9, 9:07*am, Julian Bond <julian_b...@voidstar.com> wrote:
> Mark N <menusbaumNYETS...@earthlink.net> Tue, 9 Feb 2010 07:42:38
>
> >Or maybe he's as good as anyone out there and possibly even better, but
> >will never quite show it in MotoGP, because he's too big, his
> >background is too production, his nationality is too American.
>
> Getting the excuses prepared already? Seems a little premature.

what's new. when it comes to 2010 predictions, a safe one is that
consiracy theories will continue to rum amuck in RMR... jfk got shot
by euromed midgets.

i think Spies is amazing, and that he will show it with a top 5
position. i think Spies will do quite well in MotoGP. his approach is
impeccable. and the Yamaha doiesn't seem to be any worse for not being
geared towards midgets, since neither Rossi nor Edwards fall into that
category.

of course, if Edwards was Spanish.. can you imagine the rampant cries
about favoritism despite lack of results would be uttered by our
resident crusader against the evil euromed superpowers that constantly
conspire against that meek helpless former colony...? never won a race
on ce ion 7 years blah blah... geez, at least Checa *won* a race here
and there. and was ten pounds heavier than that texas tornado :-D

i don't worry about Spies much. he'll carve his place and will be
champion in the next few years, no doubt. if anyone out there is more
promising, i haven't met then yet. Pedrosa will *never* be champion.
Stonr and Lorenzo make huge mistakes under pressure, and seem to
seasoned to move away from that. like Schwantz back in the day, it
will take for some higher force (i would not call that luck) to
finally win their title despite having shown they can be very fast on
a given day. within 2 years it'll be Rossi on a Ducati against Spies
as the top Yamaha guy. let's dream.

On Feb 11, 3:56*am, Champ <n...@champ.org.uk> wrote:
> On Wed, 10 Feb 2010 18:51:03 -0800 (PST), pablo
>
> <pa...@simplyhombre.net> wrote:
> >i think Spies is amazing, and that he will show it with a top 5
> >position...
>
> Hey, you've already put some money on a win! * :-)
> --
> Champ
> neal at champ dot org dot uk

5th in the championship. And yes, I do very well remember I bet on a
MotoGP memory that will see you donate cash to a charity of my
choice. :-D

On Feb 10, 9:51*pm, pablo <pa...@simplyhombre.net> wrote:
> On Feb 9, 9:07*am, Julian Bond <julian_b...@voidstar.com> wrote:
>
> > Mark N <menusbaumNYETS...@earthlink.net> Tue, 9 Feb 2010 07:42:38
>
> > >Or maybe he's as good as anyone out there and possibly even better, but
> > >will never quite show it in MotoGP, because he's too big, his
> > >background is too production, his nationality is too American.
>
> > Getting the excuses prepared already? Seems a little premature.
>
> what's new. when it comes to 2010 predictions, a safe one is that
> consiracy theories will continue to rum amuck in RMR... jfk got shot
> by euromed midgets.
>
> i think Spies is amazing, and that he will show it with a top 5
> position. i think Spies will do quite well in MotoGP. his approach is
> impeccable. and the Yamaha doiesn't seem to be any worse for not being
> geared towards midgets, since neither Rossi nor Edwards fall into that
> category.
>
> of course, if Edwards was Spanish.. can you imagine the rampant cries
> about favoritism despite lack of results would be uttered by our
> resident crusader against the evil euromed superpowers that constantly
> conspire against that meek helpless former colony...? never won a race
> on ce ion 7 years blah blah... geez, at least Checa *won* a race here
> and there. and was ten pounds heavier than that texas tornado :-D
>
> i don't worry about Spies much. he'll carve his place and will be
> champion in the next few years, no doubt. if anyone out there is more
> promising, i haven't met then yet. Pedrosa will *never* be champion.
> Stonr and Lorenzo make huge mistakes under pressure, and seem to
> seasoned to move away from that. like Schwantz back in the day, it
> will take for some higher force (i would not call that luck) to
> finally win their title despite having shown they can be very fast on
> a given day. within 2 years it'll be Rossi on a Ducati against Spies
> as the top Yamaha guy. let's dream.

Rossi should go to Kawasaki. The bike was good enough at one point
but needed to be properly set up and ridden.