betfair odds for MotoGP world champion

I don't bet. Ever. But I've noticed that the odds for MotoGP champion
have Rossi at 2.04 to 1 and Hayden at 2.94 to 1. Is Rossi really a
better bet for the championship than Hayden?

 

I don't claim to understand betting. But I thought that odds changed as
people made bets as the bookies changed their odds to improve their
chance of winning. In motor racing in the mid-90s, too many brits used
to bet on Damon Hill winning, that his odds changed even though the
chance of him winning races hadn't. So the lower odds on Rossi might be
due to large numbers of people betting on him to win, rather than it
being an indication that the bookies believe he is more likely to win.

Assuming that betfair has "bookies" of some sort setting the odds.

 

After the last couple of races, I would think Pedrosa and Rossi
both have a better chance than Hayden if either him or his
bike does not improve.

 

Thank you.

So if the odds for Rossi winning were 2.04, and Hayden 2.94. Both "to
one". If we ignore the other riders for a bit, then if 1000 people have
put £1 on Rossi, and 10 have put £1 on Hayden, then if Rossi wins the
bookie has a profit of

10 - 2.04 * 1000 = £-2030

and if Hayden wins their profit is

1000 - 10 * 2.94 = £970.60

So in order to make their potential losses if Rossi wins less extreme,
they want more people to bet on Hayden. So they increase the odds on
Hayden to 3.5:1 to encourage more people to bet on him. This could be
higher than the real objective odds that Hayden will win, but is done
to balance potential winnings against potential losses.

But I can't see how the 50/50 spread means that the bookie makes money
no matter who wins. Not with just two riders. With more riders I can
see it, as if we include Pedrosa and Capirossi, then the odds could be
adjusted so that the total bet on other riders is always higher than
the payout on any one winning rider. Is it possible to have a "bookie
always makes money" situation with just two riders?

Actually running a "book" looks like an interesting problem. I assume
that there are computer programs out there that can do it automatically.

 

On 13 Sep 2006 09:14:11 -0700, ""

He makes it off the "vig" - if there's $1000 on each rider, the winner
gets $1000, and the losers pays $1100, with the standard 10% vig on
losing bets (at least with most bookies here in the States). So he
basically makes 5% of the gross if he can insure an equal amount of
money on either side of a two-outcome event.