Just failed the CA DMV motorcycle popsicle test (and I thought Ihad passed)

Discussion in 'Bay Area Bikers' started by Joe Mastroianni, Feb 19, 2013.

  1. Joe Mastroianni

    Al Schmidt Guest

    tomorrow wrote on Sat, 02 Mar 2013 20:05:20 +0000:
    OK. Let's work together, as a team, on the facts.
    Note: Facts don't have a mission, so they only need to be relevant.

    Here are the facts I know (and for others to doublecheck, if I err).
    At the bottom are the facts that we, as a team, still need to obtain.

    There are only 2 riding tests that will earn a CA M1 license:

    These tests are the DMV "keyhole" & the "DL 389" (CMSP BRC):

    To obtain the DL 389, you must pay for a class:

    Class costs are no more than $150 under 21 & $250 over 21:
    Note: I paid $250 and all the schools I called were $250.

    Number of registered motorcycles in California = 818,650
    Note: This is the total for the 2011 calendar year.

    Motorcycle "safety fee" collected per year = $1,637,300
    (see official.pdf above, only paid by cyclists).

    Number of Class C licenses issued in California = 809,983
    Calendar year 2012 via communication with Brock Wells
    Forecasting Unit, Department of Motor Vehicles
    ASD » Budget and Fiscal Analysis Branch, 916.657.8008

    Number of M1's adjuncts (to existing CA licenses) = 208,951
    Source = Brock Wells, as shown above.

    Number of M1-only licenses issued = 346
    Source = Brock Wells, as shown above.
    Note: These users do not have any other CA license.

    Total number of existing M1-only licenses = 1,203
    As of 12/31/2012, source = Brock Wells

    There were 20,342 CA M{1,2} drive tests given by the DMV:
    For calendar year 2012, source = Brock Wells

    That's it for the facts that we have in this thread,
    not all are strictly relevant.

    However, what's MISSING, are the following facts that I will
    try to get (any help from you guys would be appreciated).

    * Engine sizes & pass/fail stats for the 20,342 DMV tests.
    * Pass/fail stats for the 188,609 CMSP BRC issued DL 389's.

    Note: Without pass/fail statistics, the numbers below
    can only be rough because we have no visibility (yet)
    into multiple attempts.

    Given that, we can only say that the 20,342 known
    DMV tests represent roughly about 10% of the roughly
    200,000 CMSP BRC classes taken (the number of BRC
    classes has to be greater than 188,609 because not every
    rider passes on the first attempt - but we don't know
    how much larger so the figures are roughed out).

    Note: 208,951 M licenses - 20,342 DMV tests = 188,609

    How can we obtain the key missing facts?
    * Engine sizes & pass/fail stats for the 20,342 DMV tests.
    * Pass/fail stats for the 188,609 CMSP BRC issued DL 389's.
    Al Schmidt, Mar 3, 2013
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  2. Joe Mastroianni

    Twibil Guest

    Al, why would anyone want to work with you on *anything*?

    So far as I can tell you're nothing but a paranoid fruitcake.
    Twibil, Mar 3, 2013
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  3. Joe Mastroianni

    Al Schmidt Guest

    Al Schmidt, Mar 4, 2013
  4. Joe Mastroianni

    Al Schmidt Guest

    Twibil wrote on Sun, 03 Mar 2013 14:03:42 -0800:
    It seems you have digressed to the level of name calling
    But I will not stoop to that level. Sorry.
    Al Schmidt, Mar 4, 2013
  5. Joe Mastroianni

    gpsman Guest

    Oh... this is all about that retarded conspiracy theory infesting even
    more groups than those x-posted here- "that the system is
    purposefully skewed to pass tiny bikes and fail larger bikes":

    From: "Billy B." <>
    Subject: Is there a legal way to REQUIRE the California DMV to provide
    specific data?
    Newsgroups: rec.autos.tech
    Date: 28 Feb 2013 04:14:29 GMT

    "The test is an unrealistic circus act, called the "lollipop" or
    based on what it looks like:

    Specifically, we want to know the answer to the question:
    Q: What size motorcycles take the test & whether they pass or fail.

    The reason we want to know is that it is our hypothesis that the
    system is purposefully skewed to pass tiny bikes and fail larger
    gpsman, Mar 4, 2013
  6. If you have nothing to add, why do you post garbage?
    Charlie Albertelli, Mar 4, 2013
  7. I was guessing it was a course so easy a person could run it with one hand
    holding the bar and the other a popsicle. Probably a bad guess.
    Robert Bolton, Mar 4, 2013
  8. Joe Mastroianni

    Twibil Guest

    Oh, it's not a digression.

    It's an accurate -if non-technical- decription of a poster
    who seems to have developed a paranoid fixation on
    California's MSF program. A program that was deemed
    to be a good idea for riders who couldn't pass a relatively
    simple and straightforward low-speed riding test.

    Those of us who had no problem passing that test will likely
    all agree that the popsicle is far from ideal, but we all pretty
    much understand that *some* sort of simple test was needed
    to sort out those who needed some basic riding instruction from
    those who might not. We also understand that being human in
    origin *all* motorcycle- liscensing systems are flawed in one way
    or another, and that the system used in California is no better
    -and no worse- than many others.

    Lastly, we understand that every one of the people who have come
    on Usenet to whine about how the riding tests are unfair in one way
    or another (and there have literally been dozens of 'em) have had
    personal agendas in one way or another, and that no matter how
    much (or how long) they whined, not one of them has ever been to
    suggest a better system than the one that's now in place.

    So you can cut to the chase and forget the paranoid ravings about
    how much the present system costs new riders and/or how unfair
    it is to riders of larger bikes......*Unless You have A Better Plan
    Your Sleeve*, that is. One that costs less, and is fair to all

    If you actually have one, then good on you: let's hear it.

    If you don't -and my money's on "don't"- then anything else you post
    is just an effort to avoid the fact that you don't like what we've
    but can't suggest anything better.

    As the old saying goes, Al: put up or shut up.
    Twibil, Mar 4, 2013
  9. Joe Mastroianni

    tomorrow Guest

    Did you calculate (or even consider) how much money was being spent,
    by whom, and to whom, and where, on motorcycle safety training in
    California prior to 1994?
    tomorrow, Mar 4, 2013
  10. Joe Mastroianni

    tomorrow Guest

    You still haven't done your homework or thought critically about this,
    have you?

    Fact: There was a rider training program in California before 1994.
    Fact: Revenue of $200 million over 20 years of motorcycle training is
    $10 million dollars per year. You have not demonstrated that this is
    an increase over the money that was being spent by California
    motorcycle riders for safety training and licensing certification
    prior to 1994.
    Please keep the snide asides to yourself.
    Over 20 years. Per year, it's in the neighborhood of $10 million,
    which in the great scheme of things is not much. California has 38
    million residents, so it's about 26 cents per California resident per
    year, or about $13.17 for each of the registered motorcycles in
    California (per the 2012 Census abstract, in 2009, the latest year for
    which numbers are available.)
    Fact: no one besides you has made any reference as to whether the
    CMSP is not for profit (or not). The not for profit discussion was
    destroying your earlier wild claims about the Motorcycle Safety
    Foundation, back when you were trying to convince people that it was
    ripping off California motorcyclists - a claim which was
    comprehensively debunked.
    tomorrow, Mar 4, 2013
  11. Joe Mastroianni

    Al Schmidt Guest

    tomorrow wrote on Mon, 04 Mar 2013 05:08:35 -0800:
    Point well taken. I'm sorry. Some people here (e.g., Twibil)
    have proven themselves unworthy of discussion - but you have
    been civil and intelligent all along.

    I forget whom I speak with sometimes.

    I publicly apologize for that snide remark.

    My point was that "businesses" often manipulate the
    California government system (often by "propositions") for
    their own benefit (in the "guise" of benefiting the populace).

    For example, the CA CO detector law garnered over a billion
    dollars of total revenue in 2012 and 2013 alone, simply due
    to a single law which Home Depot pushed hard for (SB 183).
    Math: 12 million homes * $20/detector * $4/home = BIG MONEY

    Given those shenanigans, the two hundred million in revenue
    earned by the CA CMSP is downright paltry, by way of comparison.
    Al Schmidt, Mar 4, 2013
  12. Joe Mastroianni

    Al Schmidt Guest

    Thomas wrote on Sat, 23 Feb 2013 15:25:18 -0800:
    Just to clarify the math ... there were 818,650 CA registered
    motorcycles on 12/31/2011.

    They pay an average $100 for registration (I don't know if that includes
    the VLF and other "fees" but probably not - so it's MUUUUCH higher if it
    doesn't) - so it's more like hundreds of dollars, on average to register
    your bike (mine certainly is).

    In addition, bikers are charged eighty-two-million dollars a year for
    safety programs in their additional registration fees.
    Al Schmidt, Mar 4, 2013
  13. No argument about the retarded conspiracy theory, but some of us find
    the statistics themselves informative. For example, if we find an
    order of magnitude more people taking the class than taking the test,
    that might lead to further interesting insights. Sometimes you don't
    know until you look. As Asimov said, "The most exciting phrase to
    hear in science, the one that heralds new discoveries, is not Eureka!
    (I found it!) but rather, 'hmm... that's funny...'"

    Personally, I don't think the problem is a skew towards tiny, but
    rather the keyhole test is over-generalized and biased against certain
    bikes in a manner that doesn't reflect either the skill of the rider
    or any real-world capability of the bikes. When I failed 30 years
    ago, it was definitely the bike. The guy who failed me said "CHP
    officers have no problem with their Harley's," but let me go and get
    my other bike as long as I re-took the test on the same day. I took
    that as him saying "I know I'm full of shit, but I won't admit it, but
    here is a face-saving way for both of us to get out of this situation
    in case you are right." I mean, I had been riding that DP bike for 10
    years on and off road, I could do plenty of show-off riding maneuvers
    I wouldn't even attempt on a road bike, including a lot more circles
    than the test required. Not to mention 10 years of bicycling before

    The test appears to be supposed to be testing the ability to
    understand and apply the concept of keeping a constant throttle to
    maintain a constant radius turn. This implies certain throttle
    settings at certain speeds, which may have been appropriate when the
    test was first implemented, but certainly by the time sport bikes came
    about it was out of bounds. The skill of slipping the clutch to
    maintain a speed repetitively around an circle may be appropriate for
    circus environments, but hardly something necessary for a beginning
    road rider. I think that was recognized at the time, that's why the
    class has different tests.
    Hypothesis needs more specificity.
    jgar the jorrible, Mar 4, 2013
  14. Joe Mastroianni

    Al Schmidt Guest

    tomorrow wrote on Mon, 04 Mar 2013 05:08:35 -0800:
    Sorting by date, and then searching for "non-profit" or "non profit",
    the very first time these words were spoken in this thread were:

    Wed, 27 Feb 2013 21:35:57, tomorrow:
    Al Schmidt, Mar 4, 2013
  15. Joe Mastroianni

    Hank J. Guest

    Of course, you're in the less than 1 out of 10 in
    California who passed that test, right?

    And, I presume you did it on a Gold Wing, which is
    probably less than 1/10 of 1%.

    The only other thing from you we need to know is
    whether you did it with your eyes blindfolded and
    one arm tied behind your back.
    Hank J., Mar 4, 2013
  16. Joe Mastroianni

    tomorrow Guest

    You're still having a great deal of difficulty in differentiating
    between the Motorcycle Safety Foundation (a national, not-for-profit,
    public safety organization that creates motorcycle rider training
    program curriculums and promotes motorcycle safety, works in all 50
    states, and has 40 employees, and was founded in 1973) and the
    California Motorcycle Safety Program (which is a state of California-
    only rider training program administered in California only, by the
    Clifornia Highway Patrol, and which was founded in 1987, and started
    receiving permanent funding in 1994), aren't you?
    tomorrow, Mar 4, 2013
  17. Joe Mastroianni

    tomorrow Guest

    At that time, Al, we both (including YOU) were talking about the MSF,
    not the CMSP:

    You: " I think the profit motive of the MSF is noble in that they DO
    serve a purpose."

    Me: The MSF is a non-profit organization.
    tomorrow, Mar 4, 2013
  18. Joe Mastroianni

    Al Schmidt Guest

    Robert Bolton wrote on Mon, 04 Mar 2013 02:21:56 -0600:
    It's actually a rigorous test of very low speed handling
    of a motorcycle, with absolutely no quarter given (stray
    one inch out of the tight lines, and you fail).

    To give you an idea of the test, 20,342 tests were given
    by the CA DMV last year (where we can assume that a sizable
    percentage failed and where Moped licenses are lumped in
    with the DMV test figures).

    On the other hand, 209,297 California M1 licenses were
    handed out in 2012.

    So, since you can only get an M1 license one of two ways,
    that means that far fewer than 10% of California bikers
    are taking the free test (more likely around 5% given
    the numbers we have at the moment).

    The rest are paying $150 (under 21) to $250 (over 21)
    for the privilege of NOT taking the popsicle test and
    to learn what they can from a class of coaches & peers.

    In summary, around 1 out of 20 bikers in California managed
    to pass the California DMV popsicle test in 2012. Roughly
    19 out of 20 took the BRC to obtain their M1 license.
    Al Schmidt, Mar 4, 2013
  19. Joe Mastroianni

    Al Schmidt Guest

    Al Schmidt wrote on Mon, 04 Mar 2013 17:51:02 +0000:
    I just called the CMSP today, again, to ask what percentage
    passes their class, since they apparently are handing
    the DL 389 certificate to something like 95% of all
    the bikers who received a license in California in 2012.

    I'll let you know what they say. If anyone WORKS AT the
    CMSP, it would be helpful if you can find the numbers
    for us.

    Like "jgar" said, the numbers 'seem funny' ... but we need
    a few more facts to see the overall picture.
    Al Schmidt, Mar 4, 2013
  20. Joe Mastroianni

    T.J. Higgins Guest

    "When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first
    things to be bought and sold are legislators." -- P.J. O'Rourke
    T.J. Higgins, Mar 4, 2013
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