New MotoGP riders

There was a bit of a preview of the teams before the GP on Sunday. The thing
that stood out was there were 11 riders aged 30 or over. You'd have to think
that within 2 years there will be 10 new riders to replace retired, demoted
or sacked ones. Where will they come from?

IF you look at the series around the world, its hard to imagine that most of
them won't come straight out of the 250GP class. I'll throw around a few
names - flame away!

WSB - Vermeulen has to be the most likely, Haslam and Toseland are chances,
while Laconi is probably good enough for another go. McCoy has made it clear
he wants back in but maybe his race is run.

BSB - Don't know enough about the young guys, but it would seem Kiyonari and
Kagayama are earmarked for bigger things. A pity Reynolds wasn't 15 years
younger!

AMA - The best qualified is obviously Mladin, but it seems unlikely.
Especially as he's no younger than the existing Suzuki riders. Lavilla and
Kagayama are probably ahead of him in the line. The guys capable of racing
with him are either not young enough, or have had a chance already, with the
possible exception of E. Bostrom. But you'd think he'd have to start beating
Mladin occasionally to be a chance. Maybe Disalvo, and someone could take a
chance on one of Hayden's brothers, a bit like some AMA teams took a chance
on Gobert's brother. Spies and Zemke also.

250GP - Heaps of them: Poggiali, De Puniet, Porto, Rolfo, Elias, Nieto,
Pedrosa, etc. Most come from the right place. The "need 4 stroke experience"
theory should be in the bin by now one thinks after Capirossi's efforts v
Bayliss, and even on the weekend the 3 Honda 2 stroke riders beat the 3 4
stroke riders. These 250 guys generally seem to have the right connections
too.

AUST. - Josh Brookes who won the WSS at Phillip Island might be a chance in
a couple of years

Comments?

 

Vermeulen has a good chance. Haslam had his chance in GP. I think he now
needs a completely dominant season to get back. Given Hodgeson's career,
this might take 5-7 years. Toseland is good, damned good, but I don't
think he's great. I reckon he'll never make it out of WSB. Laconi just
might find some French sponsorship money and get back into GP. When he
doesn't fall off he's making the current WSB look silly. McCoy won't be
back. Nor will Haga. Lavilla will get wild card rides between Suzuki
testing but he needs to find another 1.5s a lap to get a permanent
place.

Kiyonari and Kagayama might easily get full places in GP. I don't think
there's anyone else except possibly Craig Coxhell. Ex-Aussie superbike
champ and young. He'll have to make a mark on an un-competitive bike and
get a winning ride next year. It could be the "Shakey" 4 year plan. Best
2nd string, 3rd, 1st, GP. For various reasons, Emmett, Rutter, Plater,
Smart, Richards, Reynolds might make WSB, or whatever BSB becomes but
won't get a GP ride no matter how good they are.

What route could EBoz use to get to GP? I just can't see it. Even if he
completely dominated the season, I think Ducati would pay him to stay
there and do it again. It's sad but I think his one chance would have
been to do what Hoffman actually did. If for some reason Ducati's WSB
team imploded then he might take the Bayliss route. But I wouldn't bet
on the Fogarty-Bayliss situation happening again.

Spies needs to jump to Europe next year in the footsteps of Hopkins. If
he doesn't, he'll never leave.

Deeply cynical but the only ones who are any good are Pedrosa and
Poggiali. But I get the feeling that Pog is a percentage player. I feel
like I've watched him too many times drifting back in 3rd when he should
have been fighting for 1st. Pedrosa really hurt himself last year. The
one thing that might stop him moving up is his body. What I don't see in
the rest of the 250 crew is another Rossi, Biaggi, Capirossi, Kato,
Jacques, Nakano, Melandri. The sort of riders who dominated their
seasons in 250. So that leaves the McWilliams route. Porto and Rolfo
might leverage a reputation for trying hard into an uncompetitive GP
ride.