Ooops

Oh, dear. You couldn't make this stuff up...

 

Much as they might like to prop up the local dictator, they're a bit
overstretched at the mo. They might just have to tolerate an outbreak
of democracy. America's man in Egypt overthrown; France's in Tunisia
fleeing the country; Yemen and Iran rising in solidarity. A grand year
so far, except for the bigots who reckon Arabs can't do democracy.

 

And with good reason. From the perspective of The Rest Of The World for
the last 60 years, which is the entire lifetime of most of all those
living in the rest of the world, about 10 times more bodies than live in
the US, US foreign policy has been primarily about securing it's own oil
supplies and it just so happens that the middle east has a lot of that.
And then there is the Jewish problem.

Law, what law? The army just suspended their constitution, except for
the law of the gun there is no law in Egypt.

Replace one hereditary dictator who held power by means of whatever
influence he had over the armed forces with another hereditary system akin
to dictatorship who will hold power by means of denying them 70 virgins
each?

Sounds about right for that part of the world.

Those backed by The International Islamic Conspiracy are best equipped to
fight and win a quick election. What little other opposition there is
consists of rag bag disassembly of groups of dewy eyed intellectuals,
powerless trades unions and various flavours of lunatics who have heard
their very own version of the word of god and it is going to be some time
before they reach any sort of concensus about who should replace their
much loved friendly dictator.

Sadly, for the people of Egypt, the freedoms they believe the future holds
for them are almost certainly not what they will get.

 

I'm not sure how the word Bigot applies TBH.

I think the general American population would be only *TOO* happy if the
Fed Govmint was to can every last cent of the foreign aid and support
given to Arab countries including Egypt and close all the US military
bases in that part of the world. To include the significant sums given
to the Palestinians. That would be a vote winner.

Post Cold War (1) the whole Oil Security argument never justified the
mind boggling amounts of money the Yanks have spent over there. The
Arabs can't afford to ignore the Americans as a customer and other
places in the world supply oil.

I'm not including subsidies and aid to Israel in any of those arguments.

(1) yeah obviously the USSR presented different threats

 

When has it not interfered?

Omar Suleiman is America's man in Cairo.

`Calming influence' in the sense of `dictator making sure the
Palestinians were effectively blockaded'?

The question is not whether he wanted Mubarak to stay in power, but
whether he wanted a change in the system of government. He seems, for
now, to have got what he wanted: military control and no risk of
democracy.

On the other hand, the army is now having to deal with mass strikes.

 

You mean it's a pity we didn't wait until the Camps had finished the
work in hand?

 

Because the view that `Arabs can't do democracy' is racist.

$500 million per year is hardly significant, especially since more
than half is direct support to the government, largely for `law
enforcement'.

No more than the US did.

 

_Who_ ??

 

Far be it for me to suggest military rule but clearly there has to be a
period of enforced security, law and order in which an organised
transition to a

new constitution,
bill of rights,
elections,
parliament,
judicial system and
police service

can be undertaken.

See when you list it out the size of the task is pretty daunting. It
can't happen in an atmosphere of anarchy or sectarian violence or
foreign interference. Sheesh if Iraq is the perfect local example of
how bad it could be...

See how bad the standards of UK foreign reporting have become that there
hasn't been a strong thread of reflection on the Turkish system. It
appears to me that Egypt needs to have an Ataturk moment. The evolution
of a secular state in all the things I listed.

It should keep the Army happy too, in its form and in their new role as
protectors of the constitution, as in Turkey.

I expect that Egypt may have its own internal "demographics" that may
require a complex weighted proportional representation type of voting.

 

as I said....

500 mill? The entire Arab region. I expect the US spends more than a
few billion across the region every year.

Threats TO the USA. And the most of us.

Shirly you never though Communism was A Good Thing.

 

There is of course a contrary argument that in essence the majority of
people are capable of self governing, and even without the frameworks
listed above many things will work perfectly.

 

fact.
--
des
'Democracy is a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual
ignorance'
(H.L. Mencken)
<http://elderofziyon.blogspot.com/>

 

Oh, I dunno, the last election in England, perhaps? Or was that
rigged, by the US too? But really, what nation has NOT tried to
influence whatever it can, wherever it can, when it sees fit?

For today, mebbe, but they will deal with whomever is in power. FWIW,
El Baradei has plenty of support.

As in the current peace treaty with Israel.

Considering what happened to Allende in Chile, you have a point, but
I'm optimistic. We'll see how long it lasts. I'm betting on elections
in 6 months.

 

"Question"?

Needs a final solution?

 

Well in my libertarian self I'd like to agree. A peaceful transition to
an income tax free liberal utopia would be a wonder to behold. However,
in a population traumatised by 30 years of dictatorship, living close to
the font of radical islam, I think it might be a stretch.

As I said, I the lessons of Iraq shouldn't be ignored.

Maybe Egypt doesn't have any ethnic stress lines, but it seems kinda
unlikely?

Reading some of the state controlled Iranian media is pretty disturbing
but hey, who knows, people there might have the coconuts to sit out
en-masse.

<thinks>

Then again the Revolutionary Guards might make Tiananmen square look
like a birthday party.

 

I dunno. The country is fairly evenly split between left and right.
The isolationist right wing has the louder voice, but there are many
who disagree.

Jordan alone gets ~$500 mill/year, West Bank/Gaza about the same.
Egypt ~$1.5B, Israel ~$3.2B. About 1/3 of all US foreign aid goes to
Israel & Egypt.
One current view:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/poverty-matters/2011/feb/14/us-foreign-aid-cuts

 

Aye but cutting overseas expenditure is pretty cross party.

But of course the sensible 1st step in resolving your financial crisis
would be cutting military expenditure by 10% per annum for 5 years running.

 

You virtually did.

--
des
'In reality, the state is nothing but a machine for the oppression of
one class by another, and indeed in the democratic republic no less
than in the monarchy'
(Friedrich Engels (1820 - 1895))
<http://elderofziyon.blogspot.com/>

 

People make claims about how to fix the national budget, but actually
getting the numbers right is extremely difficult. (Duh, or it would be
done already.)
The New York Times lets you try:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/11/13/weekinreview/deficits-graphic..html

Dunno if there's anything similar for the UK.

 

P J O'Rourke showed how it could be done in one of his recent books.
Mind you, he was not being entirely serious....